About the project
Research into the causes and consequences of belief in conspiracy theories has been undertaken in the literature from various viewpoints. In the light of previous research and given the unprecedented scope and spread of conspiracy theories concerning COVID-19, there are reasons to believe that their negative impact on society may be serious. Generally, conspiracy beliefs can weaken public support for government policies (Prooijen and Douglas 2018), reduce the key predictors of voluntary compliance with the law (Imhoff and Bruder 2014), as well as trust in the government and in institutions (Wahl, Kastlunger, and Kirchler 2010). Importantly, they can also weaken health-related prophylactic behaviours. For example, believing in conspiracies around contraception is associated with less frequent condom use (Bird and Bogart 2005); belief in conspiracy theories concerning HIV is associated with negative attitudes towards HIV drugs (Bird and Bogart 2005; Gillman et al. 2013); and belief in anti-vaccine conspiracy theories is associated with a smaller inclination to have one’s children vaccinated (Jolley and Douglas 2014).
In a pandemic situation, conspiracy theories interpenetrate directly with the political space. Political decisions, most often involving more or less severe restrictions limiting citizens’ freedoms, are of key importance in the fight against the pandemic. The degree of their acceptance may vary and depends on many factors (Hill, Gonzalez, and Burdette 2020; Prati, Pietrantoni, and Zani 2011; Rubin et al. 2009). In particular, attitudes challenging rational restrictions proposed by the central government (e.g. restrictions on meetings or closure of certain sectors of the economy) may be used as electoral backup for existing or newly formed political parties or movements.
The significance of the project has been increased by the time when the study has been conducted. Conspiracy theories are almost universal in their nature and concern many different areas of functioning of individuals. They intensify in times of crisis and of emerging uncertainty about the future. The current situation, which has been affecting societies in almost every country, has created an interesting field for the activation of these initiatives and the creation of entirely new ones. Moreover, experts have been warning that similar pandemics might recur frequently, and thus the project presented here may potentially prove to be universal (Felman 2020; Sample 2020). The pandemic has affected each state severely, and thus the possibility of searching for answers to the questions put forward provides an opportunity to verify the relevance of sources such as: entry barriers to the party system, patterns of emergence of such theories, mechanisms of gaining social popularity, patterns of their social institutionalisation, processes of their possible politicisation, and drivers of their potential political relevance.
The research has been conducted in a comparative perspective. Poland and Slovenia have been chosen due to their different political and social references, taking into account in particular the size and the social structure of both countries. Poland is the largest, and Slovenia is the smallest country among the post-communist states in Central Europe. Poland is a country with a homogeneous ethnic structure, while the role of national minorities is much greater in Slovenia. Finally, due to its geographical location, Poland seems to draw much more interest on the part of Russia, which informally supports movements based on conspiracy theories, treating them as a tool for the internal destabilisation of countries (Snip 2020). This will make it possible to investigate whether the factors identified diversify the existence and the political prospects of such movements.
The research has been carried out in the years 2022–2025. This is a time of intense electoral activity both in Poland and in Slovenia, which support the achievements of the project’s objective. Elections in Slovenia: presidential (2022); parliamentary (2022); local government (2022); European Parliament (2024). Elections in Poland: parliamentary (2023); local government (2023); European Parliament (2024), presidential (2025).
The main research question of the presented project is the following: What is the political potential of conspiracy theories? The specific questions will focus on groups of hypotheses, but also on the objectives resulting from the nature of the study. The following important specific objectives are worth mentioning: (1) What are the political outcomes of conspiracy theory movements? We are interested in the extent to which such entities are attractive to political entities and to leaders aspiring to enter the party system; (2) What are the mobilisation patterns implemented through social media communication channels? We are interested in how leaders and/or active members disseminate the conspiracy theories that interest them and how they activate successive followers, also in relation to offline activities; (3) What are the psychological profiles of the members of conspiracy theories groups? Bearing in mind the comprehensive nature of the study, we would like to outline the psychological profiles of the members of conspiracy theories groups by diagnosing their characteristics related to motivation and emotions.